GFS新报（2月17日00z）略调强，巅峰899

官方开奶

GFS巅峰898

辐合辐散涡度等指标趋于稳定，可以说已经步入正轨了。

多中心问题大致解决，继续观望。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 166.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 166.4E, APPROXIMATELY 271
NM SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER AND
AROUND THE LLC. A 170442Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SPOTTED DEEP CONVECTION CONSTITUTING POSSIBLE FORMATIVE BANDING. A
162228Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK, ELONGATED LLC
SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CURVING TO THE
NORTH AND BEGINNING QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

GFS：二月风神

FV3：哦呵呵

EC预报973

WP, 92, 2019021706, , BEST, 0, 22N, 1660E, 15, 1010, DB,

WP, 92, 2019021706, , BEST, 0, 22N, 1660E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 40, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,