WTPN21 PGTW 180300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.5N 158.6E TO 6.1N 151.9EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 3.7N 158.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08KNOTS.2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING SEVERAL WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A 172208Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190300Z.//NNNN