如果92W解體了

不说了，看图吧

12点涡度图出来了涡度减弱
有合并趋势。
风切的话，高反在东中心，母亲健康长寿。前方风切问题不大

GFS 00Z

FV3-GFS 00Z

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A FULLY-
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 160244Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 151012Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY
WEAK, ELONGATED LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL BE
ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JMA24小时预报

ECMWF新报953

近几年的西太2月发挥不错嘛

WP, 92, 2019021518, , BEST, 0, 51N, 1676E, 15, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 100, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 92, 2019021600, , BEST, 0, 51N, 1671E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 100, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 92, 2019021606, , BEST, 0, 51N, 1665E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,