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回复:【讨论扰动】92W-19.02.14编

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WTPN21 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251Z FEB 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 180300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.8N 160.7E TO 5.8N 151.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 750
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING SEVERAL WEAK, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. A 172208Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE
REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200300Z.//
NNNN


IP属地:福建427楼2019-02-19 10:50
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    #台风蝴蝶# 【今年第2号台风“蝴蝶”即将诞生,2019风王争霸赛提前开始】位于太平洋深处马绍尔群岛附近的台风胚胎92W,这几天发展迅速,已有完整环流结构,中心附近最大风力达到7级。美国、日本分别对其发布台风生成警报和烈风警报,蝴蝶台风即将在本周生成。这个台风发展条件优越,可能成为强台风或超强台风,2019年的风王争霸赛已提前开始。
    中气爱


    IP属地:安徽来自Android客户端428楼2019-02-19 10:51
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      2025-07-24 05:34:14
      广告
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      开通SVIP免广告


      IP属地:浙江429楼2019-02-19 10:52
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        (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
        NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 154
        NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
        SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER
        (LLC). A 182257Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED,
        DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER.
        INVEST 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
        DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
        (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
        AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
        NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
        WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
        INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
        REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, WHEREAS ECMWF
        SHOWS MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN 18-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
        SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
        PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
        DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
        HOURS REMAINS HIGH.


        IP属地:江苏430楼2019-02-19 11:03
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          会超过海高斯吗?


          IP属地:河南来自Android客户端431楼2019-02-19 11:11
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            IP属地:江苏432楼2019-02-19 11:20
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              海燕


              来自Android客户端433楼2019-02-19 11:30
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                吃了01W亏的JTWC开始谨慎升格了


                IP属地:上海来自Android客户端434楼2019-02-19 11:42
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                  2025-07-24 05:28:14
                  广告
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                  爆出了-90点


                  IP属地:江苏435楼2019-02-19 11:44
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                    目前形态较好,但德法sl





                    来自Android客户端436楼2019-02-19 11:46
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                      来自Android客户端439楼2019-02-19 11:53
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                        干区警告


                        来自Android客户端440楼2019-02-19 12:02
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                          风场继续,发现个别6级风旗


                          来自Android客户端441楼2019-02-19 12:03
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                            -90点一会就没了


                            IP属地:江苏443楼2019-02-19 12:07
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