WTPN21 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251Z FEB 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 180300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.8N 160.7E TO 5.8N 151.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 750
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING SEVERAL WEAK, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. A 172208Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE
REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200300Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251Z FEB 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 180300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.8N 160.7E TO 5.8N 151.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 750
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING SEVERAL WEAK, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. A 172208Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE
REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200300Z.//
NNNN