继续TD风速

希望在上学前能命名

左上角一坨云有分裂的趋势，不知道是什么

这么完整的风场，竟然不升低压，目测能有20-25kt

日常图

谁有预报图吗

有点气场

系统前面的干区是副高自身带来的。另外由于冬季缺乏季风支援 冬季台风自身结构都比较小而紧凑 反而可以很好的抵御干区

TXPQ27 KNES 190339
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 4.6N
D. 159.4E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET = 1.0 AND
PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER

WTPN21 PGTW 190300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W) REISSUED
CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251Z FEB 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.8N 160.7E TO 5.8N 151.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 154
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER
(LLC). A 182257Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER.
INVEST 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, WHEREAS ECMWF
SHOWS MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN 18-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 180300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200300Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL POSITION AND
REMARKS.//
NNNN